May 06th 2026.
The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.2% YoY in March, remaining in positive territory for the seventh consecutive month, although deepening the slowdown observed since the beginning of the year.
Key points
- External demand continues to support the sector, although signs of weaker momentum in U.S. manufacturing (-0.1% MoM in March) and higher energy input costs have put pressure on production margins.
- Business caution stemming from a prolonged environment of uncertainty could delay investment decisions, reinforcing a more moderate growth pattern during the second quarter of the year.
- Regarding capacity utilization, as of January, seventeen of the twenty-one subsectors were below their January 2025 levels (vs fifteen the previous month).
- Looking ahead, we estimate that demand associated with artificial intelligence investment in the U.S. will continue to support certain manufacturing segments, although with more limited growth, a more heterogeneous composition across subsectors, and lower cyclical momentum.
The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (BBVA Research MMI) grew 2.2% year-over-year in March, remaining in positive territory for the seventh consecutive month, although deepening the slowdown observed since the beginning of the year. While external demand continues to support the sector, signs of less dynamism are observed in US manufacturing (-0.1% month-over-month in March), in an environment characterized by high energy input costs that have pressured production margins and generated more heterogeneous performance among subsectors. Added to this is corporate caution stemming from a prolonged environment of uncertainty, which could postpone investment decisions in the sector, thus reinforcing a more moderate growth pattern during the second quarter of the year. According to INEGI activity figures, manufacturing extended its period of slowdown into February, with a year-on-year change of -2.3% (compared to 1.6% the previous month). Considering the February data, sixteen of the twenty-one subsectors of activity reported production levels below their January 2025 level (compared to thirteen the previous month). Among these, the manufacture of textile inputs (7.9% below its Jan-25 level), the wood industry (-7.5%), and the paper industry (-6.8%) stand out.
Among the segments that have exceeded their January 2025 production level (by a larger margin) are the manufacture of petroleum products (31% above its Jan-25 level), the manufacture of machinery and equipment (+6.8%), and the basic metal industry (+2.0%). In aggregate terms, manufacturing output is 0.9% below its January 2025 level.
Regarding capacity utilization levels, as of January, seventeen of the twenty-one subsectors were below their January 2025 level (compared to fifteen the previous month). Among these, the following stand out: apparel manufacturing (11.3% below its January 2025 level), the printing industry (-7.8%), and the beverage industry (-6.8%). Conversely, the manufacture of petroleum products, the manufacture of computer and communications equipment, and the manufacture of machinery and equipment stand out for significantly exceeding the capacity utilization level recorded in January 2025 (+26.4%, +5.0%, and +3.7%, respectively). In terms of monthly change, the beverage industry showed the largest decrease in capacity utilization during the month (-6.1 pp), while the manufacture of petroleum products showed the largest increase during the period (+9.5 pp).
While we estimate that demand associated with investment in artificial intelligence in the US will continue to support certain manufacturing segments, we anticipate that future growth in the sector will be more limited, with a more heterogeneous composition across subsectors and less cyclical momentum than previously observed.
The BBVA IMM shows a high correlation with the manufacturing component of the
IGAE Manufacturing production is 0.9% below its Jan-2025 level IGAE MANUFACTURING & BBVA IMM (YyY%, 6-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE) . MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION (INDEX JAN/2025=100) Source: BBVA Research / INEGI. Source: BBVA Research / INEGI.
Capacity utilization in the computing and communications segment reached 95.0% in February. Capacity utilization in the computing and communications segment is 5.0% higher than its Jan-2025 level. CAPACITY UTILIZATION (%)
CAPACITY UTILIZATION: COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT (INDEX JAN/2025=100) Source: BBVA Research / INEGI. Economic Analysis / May 6, 2026 p. 3
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