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Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated September 9, 2026) The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of July 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 6.7 percent.
As of July 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 6.7 percent. Key Points: As of July 2026, the average effective tariff rate stood at 6.7 percent. The decline in recent months follows the Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 declaration that the IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional. Effective tariff rates vary dramatically by trade partner and product. Among major trading partners, China faces the highest effective tariff rate of 22.8 percent, although this is a marked decline from previous months. The share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA stood at 80.2 percent in July.
Steel and aluminum products remain the most heavily tariffed product category at 40.5 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 13 percent. For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator. For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker. How Have Effective Tariff Rates Changed Over Time? The Trump administration’s tariff policies have resulted in substantial increases in effective tariff rates. In January 2025, the average effective tariff rate was 2.3 percent. As of July 2026, it stood at 6.7 percent.
The decline in recent months follows the Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 declaration that the IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional. Figure 1 shows the evolution of aggregate effective tariff rates since February 2025. The chart compares the observed average effective tariff rate in customs data with a counterfactual that assumes imports would have followed historical trends, which we refer to as the “pre-substitution” rates. The gap between these lines reveals the impact of behavioral responses as importers adjust their purchasing patterns in response to tariff changes. The drop in both series in March reflects the repeal of the IEEPA tariffs in late February and their replacement with a 10 percent global tariff under Section 122.
The Section 122 tariff expired on July 24, 2026, and was replaced by new Section 301 tariffs of 10 or 12.5 percent on imports from 60 economies, with exemptions for certain products. The July data capture only the first eight days of the new tariffs. Among major trading partners, China faces the highest effective rate of 22.8 percent in July 2026. By major product category, steel and aluminum products face the highest effective tariff rates at 40.5 percent, reflecting both existing Section 232 tariffs and rate increases in June 2025, from 25 percent to 50 percent. How Did Changes in Import Behavior Affect Customs Revenue? We estimate that new tariffs raised $298.5 billion in gross customs revenue between January 2025 and July 2026, before accounting for refunds following the IEEPA ruling.
If importers had not accelerated purchases or changed their purchasing patterns, gross tariff revenue would have further increased by $59.7 billion over this period. Tariffs collected under the IEEPA authority prior to their removal totaled approximately $166 billion. Netting out those refunds leaves roughly $132.5 billion in net customs revenue raised by new tariffs since January 2025, assuming that all IEEPA tariff collections will be refunded. According to court filings, CBP has certified approximately $107 billion in refunds through August 21, 2026, about 64 percent of the $166 billion collected. How Have North American Partners Responded to Tariff Hikes? Tariff hikes in 2025 have driven a surge in the share of Canadian and Mexican imports that claim exemption from tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Figure 4 shows that the share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA remained stable through late 2024.
This share has sharply increased for both countries since early 2025, standing at 80.2 percent in aggregate as of July 2026. This surge reflects importers aggressively leveraging USMCA rules of origin to secure duty-free status and avoid higher tariff rates.
Author: PWBM
