Mexico Heavy Truck Production and Exports Surge Over 50% in July

According to figures from INEGI and the Administrative Register of the Heavy Duty Automotive Industry (Raiavp), output and international shipments both posted double-digit growth compared with the same month last year. However, year-to-date performance figures and domestic retail sales remain constrained.

Production of heavy-duty commercial vehicles reached 14,675 units in July 2026, marking a 51.8% increase from the 9,668 units assembled in July 2025. Export volumes grew even faster, soaring 66.7% year-over-year to 13,117 cargo units, compared with 7,867 units exported during the same period in 2025. Tractor-trailers maintained their position as Mexico's primary export product in the segment.

The national trade association representing the sector attributed the double-digit surge primarily to a rebound in the US commercial market, which serves as the destination for 92.4% of Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle exports.

"We see signs of recovery in the United States market. We have export growth on the order of 60% compared to what we saw last year. We hope that this trend consolidates throughout the year, that the tariff uncertainty or volatility we observed during last year and the beginning of this one settles down and clears up," said Alejandro Osorio, director of public affairs and communication, ANPACT.

During July, US buyers increased their purchases of Mexican-built trucks by 11%, importing 9,374 units compared to 8,437 units in July 2025. Industry representatives noted that ongoing efforts to diversify export markets have sustained growing dynamism across nine additional destination countries.

Employment Impact and Structural Factors

The July manufacturing uptick is beginning to stabilize the industry's labor force after severe economic headwinds in 2025. A broader slowdown in US economic activity and domestic uncertainty caused the loss of 6,000 jobs last year, representing 20% of the sector's total workforce.

"The export dynamic in July reflects that national production is advancing, with more than 14,600 units manufactured, more than 50% above the previous year, impacting the supply chain and employment in a positive way," Osorio stated during a press conference.

He added that the surge stems from medium and large enterprise fleet renewals, which had been delayed for more than a year and a half. This fleet replacement effort has been supported by government initiatives, including accelerated tax depreciation for heavy vehicle purchases and targeted modernization programs for freight and passenger transport.

The manufacturing recovery has enabled the industry to recover 6% points of the employment lost in 2025.

Year-to-Date Contractions and Domestic Market Slump

Despite the single-month spike in July, cumulative data for the first seven months of 2026 highlights ongoing challenges.

The 13 manufacturing companies that comprise the Raiavp exported 71,377 units between January and July 2026, a 6.1% contraction compared to the same period in 2025 and the lowest seven-month total since 2020. Total assembly volume for the January–July period fell by 6.12% to 85,551 vehicles, also marking the lowest output for a corresponding seven-month stretch since 2020.

Cargo vehicles accounted for 97.5% of all units manufactured from January through July 2026, with passenger buses comprising the remaining 2.5%.

In contrast to manufacturing and export gains, domestic commercial vehicle sales presented a mixed picture.

Data from the AMDA indicates that domestic wholesale commercial vehicle sales dropped 9.89% in July 2026 to 3,043 units, 334 fewer than the 3,377 units sold in July 2025. AMDA reported that retail sales fell by 334 units during the month as well.

"With this result, the market logs six consecutive months of negative annual rates and sits 10.1% below pre-pandemic levels recorded in July 2019," said Guillermo Rosales, president, AMDA.

In cumulative figures, ANPACT reported that retail sales fell 20.1% between January and July 2026, totaling 19,115 units. Conversely, wholesale transactions registered isolated monthly growth in July, rising 19.1% to 2,590 units.

Policy, Trade, and Used Import Challenges

To address domestic weakness, ANPACT urged policymakers to strengthen the internal market, speed up fleet modernization, and secure predictable trade terms amid upcoming review rounds for the USMCA.

"We consider it necessary to preserve the principles that have brought success to the treaty in recent years, such as clear rules and conditions of certainty that favor investment, supply chain integration, well-remunerated employment, and regional competitiveness," Osorio stated.

Industry leaders also called for adjustments to US Section 232 tariffs, arguing that these duties hurt economic activity and cross-border automotive integration.

Additionally, ANPACT raised concerns regarding the inflow of pre-owned heavy-duty vehicles from the United States. For every 100 new heavy vehicles sold in Mexico, roughly 53 used units enter the domestic market. ANPACT confirmed it is working alongside the Ministry of Finance to establish stricter customs valuation mechanisms to combat customs undervaluation.

"Having better customs valuation mechanisms will contribute to generating fairer competitive conditions for new heavy vehicles manufactured and marketed in Mexico," Osorio said.