- Marcelo Ebrard proposed limiting which products would be included in a potential annual review of the USMCA.
- He assures that the treaty is not at risk of disappearing and will remain in effect for at least 10 years.
- Mexico will promote its position to extend the agreement to 16 years at the meeting on July 1.
Mexico proposes adjustments to the USMCA review mechanism to provide certainty.
The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, proposed defining more precisely which products or sectors could be excluded from a potential annual review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with the aim of reducing uncertainty for investors and protecting long-term projects.
The official explained that on July 1, 2026, the three countries will begin the joint review of the agreement, in accordance with Article 34.7, in which they must decide whether to extend its validity for 16 years or maintain it for 10 years with periodic reviews each year.
Ebrard pointed out that both routes maintain the validity of the treaty, but with different implications for economic certainty.
“In either case, the treaty remains in effect for 16 or 10 years. That is the first thing that needs to be clear,” he stated.
Long-term investments, the Mexican government's main concern
The secretary warned that an annual review without clear rules could generate uncertainty in strategic sectors such as automotive, steel, and advanced manufacturing, where investments are planned for several years.
In that regard, he insisted that it must be defined what is reviewed and what is not, to avoid constant changes in rules of origin or trade conditions that affect companies' planning.
“You can't tell the investor: ‘every year I'm going to see if it's a yes or no,’” the official noted.
According to his argument, many adjustments within the treaty require lengthy technical and regulatory processes, and are therefore incompatible with annual evaluations without clear criteria.
United States rules out automatic renewal of the treaty
Ebrard recalled that the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, has reiterated that Washington does not foresee an automatic 16-year extension of the USMCA, which opens the debate about the future of the agreement.
The Secretary noted that the July 1st meeting will be key to officially learning each country's position, through letters signed by the leaders of Mexico, the United States, and Canada: Claudia Sheinbaum, Donald Trump, and Mark Carney.
No risk of immediate cancellation of the USMCA
The official ruled out the possibility of an immediate withdrawal from the agreement, recalling that the treaty itself establishes a six-month notice period, which was not activated by either party.
"Your worst-case scenario is that it continues for 10 years," Ebrard stated.
He also highlighted that approximately 85% of trade between Mexico and the United States remains tariff-free, which he considers a key advantage for the Mexican economy in the global context.
Mexico prepares its position for renegotiation
Ebrard stated that Mexico will seek to extend the USMCA for 16 years, although he acknowledged that the scenario of annual reviews could prevail depending on the positions of the United States and Canada.
Finally, he emphasized that the challenge will be to guarantee clear rules that avoid uncertainty for investments, especially in industrial sectors with long production cycles.
