Summary: The IOAE estimates a positive year-on-year change of 2.1% for the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) using seasonally adjusted figures. Breaking down the data by major economic sectors, secondary activities (encompassing all manufacturing, construction, and mining) are projected to show a 1.4% year-on-year increase, while tertiary activities (trade and services) will lead the growth with a 2.5% increase.
This publication presents timely monthly estimates of Mexico's economic activity obtained through nowcasting models. These models generate estimates of the year-on-year percentage changes and levels of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) and two major economic activities for recent months and those following the publication of official figures. The estimates are based on seasonally adjusted series.
General Information
Documentation
The results of a nowcasting model for the annual percentage change and levels of the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity) and two major economic activities are presented. The model uses a broad set of timely and high-frequency indicators, such as variables obtained from economic surveys, financial time series, and indicators extracted from non-traditional sources, among others.
The methodology is based on using various economic and financial variables and non-traditional sources of information to construct a timely and correlated dynamic factor with respect to the variable of interest. The methodology used to estimate the factor is based on Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs).
The factor synthesizes the dynamics of the variables that comprise the DFM, which are in turn transformed to achieve maximum correlation with the annual percentage change of the series of interest. The estimation of the dynamic factor follows the methodology of Doz et al. (2011), which is based on using principal components in the first stage and Kalman smoothing in the second.
The fit is obtained by estimating a regression model that uses the dynamic factor and modeling the error structure, determining the autoregressive and moving average parameters by minimizing the estimation error for a training data period. For further details, see the Methodological Document.
Nowcasts are provided for both the annual percentage change and the series levels for the two months following the close of the last published official data, along with the 95% confidence interval.
Sector: IGAE Secondary Activities Tertiary Activities
In April 2026, using seasonally adjusted figures, the IGAE increased by 1.2% compared to the previous month, in real terms (see graph 1). At an annual rate, it grew by 2.2%.
By component, secondary activities increased 2.1% and tertiary activities 0.7%,
on a monthly basis. Primary activities decreased 0.4%.
On an annual basis, primary activities rose 4.7%; tertiary activities, 2.4%; and secondary activities, 1.8%
For a full statistical report and methodology visit:
https://www.inegi.org.mx/investigacion/ioae/
